Portfolio in Brief — Reddit (RDDT)
Reddit delivered strong operational progress in 2025. The company ended the fourth quarter with more than 121 million daily active users, up 19% year over year, while quarterly revenue increased by roughly 70% to more than US$700 million. Profitability also improved significantly, with a strong increase in net income and adjusted EBITDA. Over the full year, Reddit demonstrated that it can not only grow its user base, but also monetize its audience more effectively.
Another important development was the board’s decision to authorize a US$1 billion share repurchase program. For the market, that kind of move sends a clear signal: management believes the stock has value, and the balance sheet now allows for a more assertive deployment of capital.
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Why This Is a Stock to Watch
The stock’s pullback since the start of the year appears disproportionate relative to the quality of the results delivered. The market has largely treated Reddit like just another growth name caught in the selloff affecting software, digital platforms, and several companies tied to the artificial intelligence theme. Yet the company’s underlying trajectory remains favourable.
Advertising growth remains strong, the platform continues to attract new users, and several monetization levers still appear underexploited. Reddit is not just a social media platform; it is also a unique content ecosystem deeply rooted in search, recommendations, specialized communities, and high-value discussions. In a digital landscape increasingly saturated with generic content, that positioning is becoming strategic.
In our view, the market still underestimates the monetization potential tied to search, conversation pages, and certain high-intent commercial queries. If the company succeeds in converting that audience more effectively into advertising and transactional revenue, the upside to earnings could remain meaningful.
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What the Analysts Are Saying
Several recent analyses continue to point to meaningful upside in the stock despite its sharp correction. The dominant view is that Reddit has been swept up in a broader de-risking move rather than penalized for any real deterioration in its business model. In other words, the market has cut exposure to growth stocks without truly distinguishing between structural winners and more fragile stories.
The core bullish argument remains the same: Reddit has one of the fastest-growing advertising businesses in digital media, user engagement remains solid, and its monetization surfaces are still far from fully developed. The stock remains volatile, but several observers believe the recent pullback has created a more attractive entry point for investors willing to accept above-average risk.
That said, the risks should also be acknowledged. The competitive environment is evolving quickly, especially with the rise of generative AI tools and changing online search behaviour. If Reddit were to lose part of its traffic or if advertising conversion were too slow, the market would become far less patient. It remains a compelling growth story, but one that still requires disciplined execution.
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Conclusion
In our view, Reddit remains a stock worth watching very closely. The company’s fundamentals remain solid, growth is still there, and several monetization levers have yet to be fully developed. Yet the stock has corrected sharply, largely because of the broader selloff in growth equities and de-risking across the technology sector.
In our opinion, that correction creates a buying opportunity. The stock now appears to be trading at a discount relative to the quality of the business model and its long-term growth potential. The market seems to have punished Reddit more severely than its results justify, creating a more attractive entry point for patient investors.
Volatility may remain elevated in the short term, but for investors able to look beyond the current noise, Reddit appears to offer an attractive risk-reward profile. In short, this is the kind of name we prefer to analyze when it is pulling back, not when it has already become popular again.
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Markets in Brief
Monday
• S&P 500:+1.15% at 6,581.00
• Nasdaq: +1.38% at 21,946.76
• Dow Jones: +1.38% at 46,208.47
• S&P/TSX: +1.81% at 31,883.81
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Canadian Dollar
The Canadian dollar traded at US$0.7290, unchanged from the previous session.
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North American markets began the week with a strong technical rebound, as investors welcomed signs of potential de-escalation after several sessions dominated by fears of a more prolonged energy shock. The main catalyst came from a shift in tone out of Washington, after Donald Trump said discussions had taken place with Iran and that potential strikes on certain infrastructure would be postponed for five days.
Although Tehran quickly disputed that version of events, the market chose to focus on one message: the risk of immediate escalation appeared, at least temporarily, to be easing. After several stress-filled sessions, investors were highly sensitive to any signal of de-escalation, which helped trigger a meaningful relief rally.
That interpretation had a direct impact on oil, which sold off sharply after pricing in a significant geopolitical risk premium tied to the Strait of Hormuz. The decline in crude helped cool, at least for the moment, the inflation concerns that had intensified in prior sessions. Markets therefore began to price in a less extreme energy scenario, giving risk assets some breathing room.
Lower bond yields also helped support rate-sensitive areas of the market, particularly technology, consumer discretionary, and certain cyclical stocks. Monday’s rebound therefore reflected more of a reassessment of the worst-case scenario than a fundamental improvement in the geopolitical backdrop.
That said, the move remains fragile. Markets are still being driven largely by headlines, and visibility remains limited. Investors bought a pause, not a resolution. As long as the conflict in the Middle East continues to directly influence energy prices, the risk of a swift return in volatility will remain elevated.
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Stocks in Brief
• Delta Air Lines (DAL) rose more than 2%, supported by the sharp drop in oil prices, which eased pressure on fuel costs.
• United Airlines (UAL) advanced 4.46% to US$93.96, benefiting from the same relief move across the airline sector.
• American Airlines (AAL) gained 3.64% to US$10.81, as investors moved back into names most sensitive to lower crude prices.
• Royal Caribbean (RCL) climbed 5.81% to US$278.96, helped by renewed risk appetite and easing energy prices.
• Airbnb (ABNB) advanced 3.17% to US$132.59, in a move favouring travel and consumer discretionary names.
• Chevron (CVX) gained 1.73% to US$205.21, even as oil prices moved sharply lower.
• ExxonMobil (XOM) added 0.91% to US$161.13.
• Shell (SHEL) rose 0.30% to US$90.70.
• JPMorgan (JPM) advanced 1.17%.
• Morgan Stanley (MS) gained 1.77% to US$164.32.
• Caterpillar (CAT) rose 3.00%.
• Deere (DE) gained more than 1%.
• Nvidia (NVDA) advanced more than 1%.
• Apple (AAPL) also gained more than 1%.
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Oil: Sharp Relief, But a Fragile One
Oil was the main driver of the session. WTI fell 10.28% to US$88.13 per barrel, while Brent dropped 10.92% to US$99.94.
This move reflects a major unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium that had built up over previous sessions. The signal from the market was clear: investors temporarily reduced the odds of a major global supply disruption.
That said, the absolute level of oil prices remains elevated, and the market is not returning to a normalized regime. Crude volatility continues to shape the near-term macro narrative, particularly around inflation, rate expectations, and overall risk appetite.
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Sector Performance
• United States: all 11 S&P 500 sectors moved higher, led by cyclicals, consumer discretionary, financials, and technology.
• Canada: the TSX posted a broad-based rebound, supported by improving market sentiment and strength in financials, despite the drop in oil prices.
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Tuesday
• S&P 500:-0.37% at 6,556.37
• Nasdaq: -0.84% at 21,761.89
• Dow Jones: -0.18% at 46,124.06
• S&P/TSX: +0.18% at 31,941.59
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Canadian Dollar
The Canadian dollar traded at US$0.7265, down from US$0.7290 the previous day.
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Tuesday’s session marked a return to caution following Monday’s strong rebound. U.S. markets gave back part of their gains as hopes for de-escalation in the Middle East weakened once again. For investors, the issue is less the total absence of discussions than the lack of real visibility. Washington continued to refer to negotiations with Iran, but Tehran’s denials, the continuation of strikes across the region, and reports of a possible increase in U.S. military deployment all brought uncertainty back to the forefront. The market therefore remains trapped in a headline-driven environment, where every political statement can sharply move oil, rates, and equities.
Oil once again became the main driver of the session. After Monday’s sharp pullback, crude resumed its upward climb, with Brent rising to US$104.49 and WTI to US$92.35. This rebound revived inflation concerns and served as a reminder that the market has not yet sustainably removed its geopolitical risk premium. In other words, investors recognized that Monday’s drop in oil mainly reflected a rapid unwinding of the most nervous positions rather than a true normalization of the global energy backdrop.
The rebound in crude was accompanied by another rise in bond yields. The U.S. 10-year yield moved back up to around 4.36%, while the 2-year approached 3.94%. This move is important because it confirms that the market continues to reassess its expectations for the Federal Reserve. At the start of the year, many investors were still expecting rate cuts. But with higher energy prices and persistent inflation, that view has shifted quickly. The market is now beginning to price in the possibility that the Fed may remain on hold for longer and maintain a more restrictive stance than previously expected.
The contrast between Toronto and New York is also worth noting. The TSX finished slightly higher, supported notably by base metals and utilities, while Wall Street moved lower. This reflects a Canadian market that is somewhat more defensive in its composition, but also more exposed to commodities in an environment where the energy shock continues to dominate the macro narrative. In the United States, growth segments came under greater pressure, particularly tech and software, which remain more sensitive to rising rates and deteriorating sentiment.
In the end, Tuesday’s session confirms that the market has not yet found a new anchor. Monday’s relief rally did not hold, but the selloff also did not resume in a disorderly fashion. We remain in a back-and-forth market, heavily dependent on the evolution of the conflict, oil prices, and rate expectations. As long as those three variables continue to feed one another, volatility is likely to remain elevated and day-to-day moves are likely to stay more tactical than fundamental.
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Stocks in Brief
• Dollarama (DOL) fell 9.60% after reporting fourth-quarter results. Although overall results came in ahead of expectations, the market focused on a more cautious message on costs as higher energy prices threaten the broader supply chain.
• Netgear surged 10.88% after the U.S. announced a ban targeting certain consumer routers manufactured abroad.
• CoreWeave rose 1.29%, supported by a more favourable recommendation and continued enthusiasm around artificial intelligence infrastructure.
• Estée Lauder declined following confirmation of discussions with Puig regarding a possible merger, as the market remained cautious in the absence of a concrete agreement.
• Chevron, ExxonMobil, Marathon Petroleum, and Phillips 66 continued to benefit from renewed strength in oil prices, with several energy names hitting fresh highs.
• In software, pressure intensified: Salesforce fell more than 5% and ServiceNow more than 4%, as weakness in the group resumed.
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Oil: Monday’s Relief Lasted Only One Session
Oil resumed its upward trend on Tuesday, erasing a significant part of the previous day’s decline.
• WTI: +4.79% at US$92.35
• Brent: +4.55% at US$104.49
This rebound shows that the market continues to price in a high risk of global supply disruption. Until there is a clear and credible signal of de-escalation, crude is likely to remain the dominant variable across financial markets.
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Sector Performance
• United States: the energy sector led the session with a gain of roughly 2%, remaining the only S&P 500 sector in positive territory for the month. By contrast, technology and especially software came under renewed pressure.
• Canada: the TSX was supported by base metals and utilities, allowing the index to finish modestly in positive territory despite weakness in the major U.S. indexes.
________________________________________Gold and Silver: The End of the Euphoria, Not Necessarily the End of the Thesis
The recent pullback in gold and silver caught many investors off guard. In theory, a major geopolitical conflict should support safe-haven assets. In practice, however, precious metals corrected even as tensions in the Middle East sent energy prices sharply higher and reignited inflation concerns. This move is not as paradoxical as it may seem. It mainly reflects how markets behave when they shift from a protection narrative to one driven by liquidity needs, interest rates, and rapid repositioning.
One explanation is that gold had likely moved too far, too fast. After reaching historic highs earlier this year, the yellow metal had become an almost overly obvious market consensus. When an asset is widely owned, deeply profitable, and supported by a highly favourable narrative, it also becomes vulnerable to a sharp correction. In that context, the recent decline looks less like a breakdown in the long-term thesis and more like the end of a euphoric phase in which the market had priced in an almost straight-line move higher.
The second factor, and likely the most important in the short term, is the oil shock. Disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz led to a sharp repricing of global energy risk. Very quickly, markets began to factor in the idea that a prolonged oil spike could sustain inflation and delay any eventual monetary easing. At that point, the war was no longer interpreted solely as a bullish driver for gold, but also as a factor that could keep central banks more cautious and more restrictive.
This is where the role of the U.S. dollar and real rates becomes central. Gold does not generate any yield. When an inflation shock pushes investors to revise upward their expectations for bond yields, while the U.S. dollar strengthens at the same time, the opportunity cost of holding gold rises. In other words, gold can fall not in spite of inflation, but because of the market reaction inflation triggers in rates and in the dollar.
There is also a classic stress-market mechanism at work: investors sometimes sell not what they want to sell, but what they can sell. When markets become unsettled, the most liquid and most profitable assets often become a source of cash. Gold played that role. Because it was still sitting on significant gains accumulated before the conflict, it was used to raise liquidity, cover losses elsewhere, reduce leverage, or meet margin calls. Even traditionally defensive assets can therefore correct when immediate cash management becomes the priority.
Silver, for its part, held up even less well, and that is not surprising. Unlike gold, its value does not rest solely on its safe-haven role. Silver also remains an industrial metal, exposed to global growth expectations. As soon as markets began to price in a potential slowdown tied to the energy shock, expected industrial demand weakened. That intensified the correction, especially since silver, too, had already gone through a strong rally.
It is also important to keep in mind that today’s gold market is no longer the one investors knew twenty or thirty years ago. The yellow metal is no longer held only as a psychological symbol of safety. It is now embedded in institutional allocations, ETFs, quantitative strategies, multi-asset portfolios, and sovereign reserves. The more institutionalized an asset becomes, the more sensitive it is to flows, rebalancing, and broader risk-management constraints. That makes its short-term moves more technical, faster, and at times more counterintuitive.
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Wednesday
• S&P 500:+0.54% at 6,591.90
• Nasdaq: +0.77% at 21,929.83
• Dow Jones: +0.66% at 46,429.49
• S&P/TSX: +1.38% at 32,382.60
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Canadian Dollar
The Canadian dollar traded at US$0.7246, down from the previous session.
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Markets moved higher again on Wednesday, though without any real sense of exuberance. Investors once again reacted to the idea that a ceasefire in the Middle East could eventually take shape, following new comments out of Washington that were viewed as constructive. The White House said discussions with Tehran were continuing and remained productive, even as the political tone stayed aggressive, with Donald Trump warning that he was prepared to “unleash hell” on Iran if no deal were reached.
Once again, the market chose to latch onto even the slightest positive signal. Repeated denials from Tehran, which said it had no intention of negotiating, were not enough to fully erase that cautious optimism. This dynamic says a great deal about current market psychology: investors are mainly looking for a reason to reduce the risk premium that has built up since the conflict began, without necessarily believing that a full resolution is close at hand.
The real barometer of the session remained oil. Crude prices fell more than 2%, giving financial markets some welcome relief. Traders focused on Iran’s indication that it would allow “safe passage” for non-hostile vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic corridor for Gulf energy exports. That move in oil immediately eased fears of another inflation surge and allowed bond yields to pull back.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield moved back toward 4.32%, down from 4.36% the previous day. That is still elevated relative to pre-conflict levels, but the message from the bond market was nonetheless more constructive: if energy prices stop climbing, inflation expectations can cool somewhat, reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve and offering support to risk assets.
It is also worth noting that corporate earnings expectations still appear to be holding up reasonably well. That has helped stabilize equities. In the background, investors seem to be navigating between two interpretations: either they are beginning to believe that a path out of the conflict could come sooner than expected, or they believe the U.S. economy can absorb a meaningful part of the shock without major damage. In that context, Wednesday’s advance looked more like a disciplined relief move, driven by hope and lower oil prices, than a full return to a normalized risk environment.
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Stocks in Brief
• Arm Holdings (ARM) surged 16.38% to US$157.07 after unveiling its first fully in-house designed and manufactured chip dedicated to artificial intelligence. According to the company, this new product alone could generate US$15 billion in revenue over the next five years.
• EchoStar (SATS) rose 7.43% to US$119.07, supported by speculation that SpaceX is preparing to file for an initial public offering. EchoStar has sold several billion U.S. dollars’ worth of spectrum to SpaceX and also holds an ownership stake in the company.
• Meta (META) gained 0.33% to US$594.89 despite being found liable in a case tied to Instagram’s alleged role in a teenager’s depression.
• Alphabet (GOOG) added 0.13% to US$289.59, also showing resilience despite its involvement in the same ruling concerning YouTube. The decision could still influence hundreds of other cases underway in the United States against social media platforms.
• Nvidia, AMD, and Intel also supported the broader strength in technology, as enthusiasm around artificial intelligence remained a key market theme.
• Micron continued to weaken, as investors remained split between the strength of recent results and concerns around capital spending and margins.
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Oil: Still the Market’s True Barometer
Oil once again dictated the tone of the session.
• WTI: -2.20% at US$90.32
• Brent: -2.17% at US$102.22
The market responded positively to signs suggesting some easing of risk around the Strait of Hormuz. While this did not amount to a resolution of the conflict, it was enough to remove part of the geopolitical premium embedded in crude prices. As long as oil continues to move lower, equities may retain some support. But the market’s dependence on crude remains extremely high, which still limits the durability of the rebound.
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Sector Performance
• United States: technology performed well again, helped by strength in several semiconductors and artificial intelligence names, while lower oil prices reduced momentum in the energy sector.
• Canada: the TSX was supported primarily by base metals, allowing the Toronto index to outperform Wall Street on the day.
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Thursday
• S&P 500: -1.74% at 6,477.16
• Nasdaq: -2.38% at 21,408.08
• Dow Jones: -1.01% at 45,960.11
• S&P/TSX: -1.53% at 31,887.52
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Canadian Dollar
The Canadian dollar traded at US$0.7223, down from US$0.7246 the previous day.
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Thursday’s session brought a much more defensive tone back to the markets. After the brief relief seen earlier in the week, investors once again began to price in a longer conflict in the Middle East, as contradictory signals surrounding talks between Washington and Tehran undermined confidence in a quick resolution. The market was once again pulled into the same pattern that has dominated for several sessions: rising oil, rising yields, and falling risk assets. Tougher comments from Donald Trump on Iran added to the unease, while Gulf countries also hardened their tone following new attacks on energy infrastructure.
Oil was once again the main source of pressure. Brent jumped 5.66% to US$108.01 per barrel, while WTI climbed 4.61% to US$94.48. This renewed surge reignited inflation concerns and reinforced the view that the war continues to impose a meaningful risk premium on global energy markets. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and discussions about tighter control over shipping routes further strengthened the perception that the situation remains far from normalized.
That rise in energy prices immediately spilled over into the bond market. U.S. yields moved higher again, with the 10-year reaching roughly 4.43%, putting additional pressure on the most rate-sensitive parts of the market, particularly technology and growth stocks. The market is once again dealing with a more hostile backdrop: higher energy prices, potentially stickier inflation, and less room for the Fed to maneuver. The OECD has also raised its U.S. inflation forecast for 2026 to 4.2%, well above its previous estimate, illustrating just how much the energy shock is reshaping macro expectations.
Technology bore the brunt of the selloff. The Nasdaq fell back into correction territory, more than 10% below its recent high, while semiconductors, digital platforms, and mega-cap technology names led the downside. The market was rattled both by geopolitical concerns and by more specific sector developments, including increased pressure on Meta after two major legal setbacks tied to youth safety on its platforms, as well as continued liquidation in memory chip stocks following the announcement of Google’s new compression algorithm. In short, Thursday combined a macro shock, geopolitical stress, and sector-specific weakness — the perfect recipe for a broad risk-off session.
In Canada, the TSX also moved sharply lower, weighed down by base metals. The Toronto market was more vulnerable to weakness in cyclical commodities, even though energy remained relatively well supported across North America. The Canadian dollar’s decline also fits with this more cautious tone, as investors continued to favour the U.S. dollar in an environment defined by geopolitical stress and rising U.S. yields.
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Stocks in Brief
• Meta Platforms (META) fell 7.96% after two major legal rulings related to the design of its social media platforms and their effects on younger users, reviving legal and reputational concerns around its business model.
• Reddit (RDDT) plunged 8.85%, caught in Meta’s wake and in the broader repricing of risk facing social media platforms.
• Snap (SNAP) dropped 10.69% as investors reassessed regulatory and legal risk across the sector more aggressively.
• Alphabet (GOOGL) lost 3.06%, hurt by broad technology weakness and by its own legal setback related to YouTube, although its more diversified business model helped limit the damage.
• Micron (MU) fell 6.97%, extending the correction in memory chips after concerns triggered by Google’s new AI compression algorithm.
• Sandisk plunged 11.02% and Western Digital (WDC) fell 7.70%, as investors questioned the future scale of memory demand tied to artificial intelligence.
• Nvidia (NVDA) declined roughly 3.7% as part of a broader selloff in semiconductors and growth stocks.
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Oil: Pressure Intensifies Again
Oil was once again at the center of the session.
• WTI: +4.61% at US$94.48
• Brent: +5.66% at US$108.01
The market’s message is clear: investors no longer believe a quick de-escalation is likely. Crude therefore continues to dictate the tone across asset classes, fuelling inflation concerns, higher yields, and weaker risk appetite.
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Sector Performance
• United States: energy once again led the market, supported by the surge in crude prices, while technology, communication services, and semiconductors led the decline. Weakness in social media platforms and memory chip names amplified the Nasdaq’s losses.
• Canada: the TSX was dragged lower by base metals, while the broader backdrop remained negative for more cyclical sectors. The rise in oil was not enough to offset the wider pressure on the index.
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Friday
• S&P 500: approximately -0.8%
• Nasdaq: approximately -1.1%
• Dow Jones: approximately -0.9%
• Brent crude: above US$110 per barrel
• WTI: above US$96 per barrel
As of Friday morning, markets remain under pressure, but this looks more like a cautious and nervous market than a disorderly selloff. The backdrop continues to be dominated by headlines surrounding Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and energy.
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Weekly Conclusion
Friday’s session is a continuation of the nervous tone seen over the past several days, but some nuance is still warranted. The market is not facing a fundamental collapse in the economic backdrop; rather, it is continuing to reprice the risk premium tied to oil and the conflict in the Middle East. Donald Trump’s decision to extend the deadline given to Iran until April 6 reduces the risk of an immediate escalation, but it does not resolve the main issue: investors still have no clear visibility on the normal reopening of the Strait of Hormuz or on how quickly a diplomatic resolution might emerge.
The key takeaway remains oil. The fact that Brent is holding above US$110 shows that the energy market is still pricing in a serious supply risk. That said, the current rise in crude does not necessarily mean a worst-case scenario has already been confirmed; it mainly reflects a high degree of uncertainty premium. As long as that premium remains elevated, equity markets are likely to stay more sensitive, especially growth-oriented segments and stocks that depend more heavily on a friendlier rate environment.
There are still a few more constructive elements in the session. First, U.S. consumer inflation expectations moved higher, but without signalling a major loss of control at this stage: the University of Michigan survey mostly points to a more cautious consumer, not to unanchored inflation expectations. Second, the market weakness remains concentrated in an environment driven by geopolitical and energy volatility, which means that a shift in tone on the diplomatic front could still trigger a sharp rebound, as we saw earlier this week.
In other words, this remains an unstable market, but not a market without a path forward. Investors continue to adjust positioning based on oil, geopolitics, and rates. For now, the best read is that of a market in waiting — more selective, more nervous, but still highly reactive to any credible sign of de-escalation.
