Your Portfolios in Brief
Founded in 2004, Celsius Holdings has carved out a space in the energy drink market with its “better-for-you” products — sugar-free, low-calorie, and performance-oriented. In 2025, the company took a major step forward by expanding its portfolio with Alani Nu and the relaunch of Rockstar in North America, all supported by a strengthened strategic partnership with PepsiCo. This alliance propels Celsius into another league in terms of distribution and visibility.
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2025 Highlights
• PepsiCo as a turbo: integration of Alani Nu into PepsiCo’s network relaunch of Rockstar in North America, and role as category captain in the U.S. energy segment.
• Record growth: Q2 2025 delivered spectacular sales, with gross margins around 50% despite aluminum cost pressures.
• Massive distribution: presence in more than 200,000 U.S. points of sale, alongside expansion in Canada and internationally.
• Constant innovation: new flavours, limited editions, and strong e-commerce presence driving repeat purchases.
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Stock Performance
• +94.4% year-to-date (YTD).
• After a 52-week high at the end of August, the stock pulled back in September, a normal consolidation move after such a strong rally.
• Current levels still leave room for a potential rebound if the support zone holds.
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Why Keep CELH on the Radar
1. A multi-brand platform: Celsius, Alani Nu, and Rockstar cover different segments and consumption moments.
2. PepsiCo advantage: accelerated distribution, more shelf space, and stronger out-of-home execution (restaurants, stadiums, campuses).
3. Solid unit economics: ~50% gross margins and disciplined pricing/mix offsetting volatile costs.
4. Expanding categories: energy continues to gain share in non-alcoholic beverages, creating structural tailwinds.
5. Upcoming catalysts: integration synergies, Rockstar rollout, international expansion.
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Conclusion — Our View
Celsius 2025 is the story of a brand that has evolved from a single product into a true multi-brand portfolio. Even after a technical pullback in September, the stock is still up nearly +95% YTD. The company continues to gain ground through explosive growth, its turbocharged partnership with PepsiCo, and strong margins. For a growth-oriented portfolio like ours, CELH remains a strategic stock to watch closely. In recent weeks, we’ve capitalized on several successful moves with this name, making it a pillar of our strategy.
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Market Brief
Monday
• S&P 500:6,693.75 (+0.44%)
• Nasdaq: 22,788.98 (+0.70%)
• Dow Jones: 46,381.54 (+0.14%)
• S&P/TSX (Toronto): 29,958.98 (+0.64%) — strengths in materials (gold) and a rebound in some techs supported the index.
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Canadian Dollar (CAD)
The CAD closed around 0.7238 US$ (≈ USD 1.3817/CAD), erasing part of its recent gains against the greenback in a context of caution ahead of fresh U.S. inflation data.
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Macro & Monetary
AI theme dominates. The announcement of an investment of about US$100B between a major chip maker and an AI model leader to expand computing capacity (≈10 GW) revived the thesis of a multi-year “data centre” capex cycle. The implicit message for markets: if digital infrastructure spending accelerates, demand for semiconductors, cloud software, and electricity remains durably supported — boosting both tech and utilities.
Politics & calendar. The risk of a U.S. government shutdown remains a psychological ceiling as the September 30 deadline approaches. Historically, markets tend to look past temporary shutdowns, but political rhetoric can heighten intraday volatility.
Fed: debate on the pace of cuts. After the first-rate reduction in September, Governor Stephen Miran is pushing for more aggressive cuts (~2 percentage points) to avoid excessive labour market restriction, while A. Musalem (St. Louis Fed) calls for caution to prevent premature over-easing. Traders are watching Friday PCE (the Fed’s preferred inflation measure), a key arbiter for yields and the dollar.
Technical & Seasonality. Late September/early October remains a historically weaker window (adage: “sell Rosh Hashanah, buy Yom Kippur”). Several strategists recommend buying dips if a tactical cooling occurs, as the underlying bullish trend remains intact absent a bond shock.
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Stocks in Brief
• Nvidia (NVDA): +3.9% — announcement of up to US$100B investment with an AI partner to deploy ≥10 GW of capacity. Thesis: AI cycle extended through 2026+, lifting the ecosystem (GPUs, networks, storage, cooling).
• Oracle (ORCL): +~6% — appointment of Clay Magouyrk and Mike Sicilia as co-CEOs; Safra Catz moving to EVP of the board. Signal of sharper focus on OCI and industry verticals.
• Apple (AAPL): +~4% — strong initial demand for the iPhone 17 (longer delivery times, favourable Pro/Pro Max mix with some carriers).
• Barrick Gold (ABX) +7.4% / Kinross (K) +3.8% — direct leverage to record gold, visible support to the TSX.
• U.S. Utilities — firmer, driven by the “data centre electricity” thesis (rising power and network needs).
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Sector Performance
• Technology — leading thanks to AI (semiconductors, cloud, infrastructure software).
• Materials — gold strength, catch-up by miners that had underperformed the metal earlier in the year.
• Utilities — benefit from anticipated data centre power capex and a potentially more favourable rate bias if inflation confirms its easing.
• Consumer discretionary — Apple boosts “hardware/electronics” segment on iPhone optimism; elsewhere, dynamics remain mixed.
• Energy — softer, with WTI around US$62 amid ample supply and risk appetite favouring tech.
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Commodities & Currencies
• Gold (Dec.): US$3,775/oz (recent intraday record ~US$3,763) — supported by expectations of lower real rates and strong safe-haven demand.
• WTI (Nov.): ~US$62.28/bbl — tight range, balancing ample supply, inventories, and moderate global growth.
• CAD: 0.7238 US$ — reflects growth and real-rate differentials with the U.S.; highly sensitive to upcoming U.S. PCE data and the Bank of Canada’s tone.
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Tuesday
• S&P 500:6,656.92 (−0.55%)
• Nasdaq: 22,573.47 (−0.95%)
• Dow Jones: 46,292.78 (−0.19%)
• Russell 2000: −0.20% (after a new intraday high).
• S&P/TSX (Toronto): 29,815.63 (−0.48%) — pullback after crossing above 30,000 in the morning, dragged lower by information technology.
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Canadian Dollar (CAD)
The CAD slipped to 0.7230 US$ (≈ USD 1.3830/CAD) at the close, in a context of more cautious markets and anticipation of Friday PCE.
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Macro & Monetary
Powell more cautious on valuations. The Fed Chair said stock prices are “rather high,” while reminding that the path of rate cuts is not set and the environment remains “demanding.” Message received: the central bank does not wish to fuel a new bout of exuberance the day after record highs.
Data ahead. Friday’s PCE (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) becomes the short-term arbiter. A surprise to the upside in the core index could push back expectations for a faster pace of easing.
Politics & backdrop. The risk of a shutdown before September 30 remains a psychological brake; rhetoric in Washington is adding intraday volatility but has not triggered panic selling.
Cycle themes. After Monday AI euphoria, the session saw a return of caution: questions on the sustainability of AI capex (energy costs, financing), profit-taking on megacaps, and reallocation toward more defensive names.
Rates & gold. The U.S. 10-year eased slightly (~4.11%). Gold hit a new intraday record (~US$3,825/oz), extending a historic streak, while silver reached levels unseen since 2011.
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Stocks in Brief
• Nvidia (NVDA): −2.8% — profit taking after announcement of a US$100B investment into the OpenAI ecosystem; debate over client-supplier structures, energy needs (≥10 GW), and cycle sustainability.
• Oracle (ORCL): −4.4% — technical pullback after a +50% run in 3 months on the AI wave; intraday rotation out of mega-cap tech.
• Amazon (AMZN) −3.0% · Microsoft (MSFT) −1.0% · Meta (META) −1.3% — megacaps lower on Fed/valuation caution.
• Micron (MU): +1.1% — tactical buying ahead of results, supported by AI/memory angle.
• Boeing (BA): +~2.0% — boosted by commercial announcements (Uzbekistan Airways order; speculation on U.S.–China deal), renewed interest after underperformance.
• Firefly Aerospace (FFLY): −~15% — weaker-than-expected results and widening losses; post-IPO adjustment.
• IonQ (IONQ) — intraday boost after a “quantum internet” milestone (conversion to telecom wavelengths), before fading late session.
• AutoZone (AZO): −>3% — fiscal Q4 earnings below consensus; near-term multiple compression.
• Gold miners (ETF gold + mining) — strong tone with gold at record highs; flows into B2Gold, Kinross, Pan American, etc.
• Morgan Stanley (MS) — project for a crypto-offering through E-Trade in H1 2026 (strategic message for wealth management, limited near-term stock impact).
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Sector Performance
• Technology — laggard of the session (AI/megacaps down; semis mixed).
• Materials — gold/silver strength → miners higher; countertrend vs. Nasdaq.
• Consumer discretionary — mixed (AZO weighs; e-commerce and platforms lower).
• Industrials — aerospace supported (BA), but caution on rate-sensitive cyclical.
• Utilities — firmer, with “data centre electricity” still a background theme; benefited from modest easing in long rates.
• Energy — flat to soft (oil in low-$60s range), macro-driven reallocations dominating.
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Commodities & Currencies
• Gold (intraday) ≈ US$3,824.6/oz — 37th record of the year, supported by safe-haven demand and outlook for less restrictive real rates.
• Silver — new highs since 2011, up ~50% YTD.
• WTI (Nov.) ~US$62–63/bbl — mixed sentiment between ample supply and moderate global growth.
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TSX at 30,000: A Symbolic Milestone Driven by Energy, Gold and Renewed Confidence
On September 23, the S&P/TSX briefly crossed 30,000 for the first time, the culmination of a rally that began in the spring, fuelled by strong energy and base metals, surging gold, as well as catch-up in banks and several Canadian tech “stars.” Beyond the round number, this reflects a shift in sentiment: after being shunned compared to U.S. valuations, Canadian equities have benefited from a relative discount and an easing of recession fears.
Momentum was also supported by U.S. catalysts (major AI announcements, strong demand indications for new iPhones), which spread optimism north of the border. The result: an index more diversified than often assumed, lifted by gold miners, energy producers, financials and some retailers, reaching record levels despite a still-messy macro backdrop.
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Wednesday
• S&P 500:6,637.97 (−0.28%)
• Nasdaq: 22,497.86 (−0.34%)
• Dow Jones: 46,121.28 (−0.37%)
• S&P/TSX (Toronto): 29,756.95 (−0.20%)
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Canadian Dollar
• CAD/USD: around 0.720 US$, slightly lower on the day.
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Macroeconomic and Monetary Analysis
Wall Street saw a second consolidation session, marked by profit-taking in large-cap tech/AI stocks and caution ahead of the release of weekly jobless claims (Thursday) and the PCE index (Friday).
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield edged up to 4.14%, confirming ongoing vigilance in the bond market.
On housing, new home sales for August came in much stronger than expected (about 800,000, +20.5% m/m), supporting residential builders and tempering the slowdown narrative.
Finally, Jerome Powell’s recent remarks highlighting stretched valuations revived short-term rotation out of growth/AI.
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Stocks in Brief
• Intel (INTC): +6.4% — rebound after reports of investment talks with Apple.
• Alibaba (BABA): +8–9% — AI-related investments and new product announcements; strengthened collaboration in AI.
• Lithium Americas (LAC): +90–96% — surge on rumours of U.S. interest in a stake in the Thacker Pass project.
• Micron (MU): −3% — results above expectations, but guidance seen as too cautious.
• Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL): retreating amid doubts about AI spending and stretched valuations.
• Oracle (ORCL): −2% — bond financing and fading AI narrative in the short term.
• Freeport-McMoRan (FCX): −10 to −17% — mine, cutting copper and gold production outlook.
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Sector Performance
• United States (S&P 500):
o Information Technology led the declines (AI profit taking, sensitivity to rates/valuations).
o Residential real estate/builders supported by strong new home sales.
o Energy more resilient, benefiting from sector rotation.
• Canada (S&P/TSX):
o Slight pullback, with Financials weighing on the index despite mixed performance from materials.
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Thursday
• Dow Jones: 45,947.32 (−0.38%)
• S&P 500:6,604.72 (−0.50%)
• Nasdaq: 22,384.70 (−0.50%)
• TSX: 28,915.89 (+0.57%)
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Canadian Dollar
• CAD/USD: 0.7231 US$ (down)
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Macroeconomic and Monetary Analysis
Wall Street fell for a third consecutive session, weighed down by Oracle’s decline and the rise in bond yields. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.20%, after strong U.S. economic data:
• Weekly jobless claims dropped to 218,000 (vs. 235,000 expected), confirming the resilience of the labour market.
• Q2 GDP was revised higher to 3.8%, reinforcing the idea that the Fed could delay its next rate cuts.
These macro signals support economic strength but also fuel fears of a prolonged tightening cycle. Investors are cautiously awaiting the PCE inflation index on Friday as well as developments regarding a potential U.S. government shutdown, which could trigger volatility.
In Canada, the TSX diverged positively, supported by technology and a few leading names, despite the weakness of the Canadian dollar.
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Stocks in Brief
• Oracle (ORCL): −5% — third straight decline, with a new analyst predicting a 40% pullback linked to unrealistic expectations for cloud and AI.
• Tesla (TSLA): −4% — heavy selling in rate-sensitive tech names.
• CME Group (CME): +2% — upgraded by Citi (buy), target rose to US$300.
• Webull (WEBL): +1% — initiated at buy by Rosenblatt with a +36% upside target.
• Cipher Mining (CIFR): −10% — sharp volatility after a convertible bond issue and an HPC colocation deal with Google.
• Lululemon (LULU): −3% — downgraded by Needham citing a tougher competitive environment.
• Intel (INTC): +5% — reports of a potential Apple investment, following recent backing from Nvidia and the U.S. government.
• CarMax (KMX): −20% — quarterly results far below expectations, worst session since 2022.
• Freeport-McMoRan (FCX): −5% — continued pressure after force majeure declared at Grasberg.
• Lithium Americas (LAC): +22% — speculation on a U.S. government stake, extending its rally.
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Sector Performance
• United States (S&P 500):
o Declining: Information Technology (Oracle, Tesla) and pressured megacaps.
o More resilient: Energy and Financials in a higher-rate environment.
• Canada (TSX):
o Technology leading (+2%), supported by Shopify.
o Materials weaker (base metals).
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Friday
• Dow Jones: 46,275.32 (+0.70%)
• S&P 500: 6,631.17 (+0.40%)
• Nasdaq: 22,429.63 (+0.20%)
• S&P/TSX (Toronto): 29,982.21 (+0.08%)
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Canadian Dollar
• CAD/USD: 0.7240 US$, slightly higher.
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Macroeconomic and Monetary Analysis
Markets rebounded after three straight down sessions, supported by the release of the August PCE index, which came in line with expectations.
• Core PCE inflation: +2.9% year-over-year, +0.2% m/m.
• Headline inflation: +2.7% year-over-year, +0.3% m/m.
These figures confirm the scenario of a controlled deceleration in inflation, leaving the door open to two additional rate cuts by year-end, consistent with the Fed’s message.
The relief was even more notable given Thursdays data (Q2 GDP revised up to +3.8%, weekly jobless claims down to 218,000), which had reignited fears that the Fed might slow its pace of easing. The PCE reassured investors: “no bad surprises, therefore no immediate obstacle to monetary easing.”
That said, investors remain cautious about the risk of a government shutdown on September 30 and about the impact of tariffs announced in Washington, which could trigger bouts of volatility.
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Weekly Conclusion
Even though the week turned out to be rather volatile, it’s important to remember that markets had strung together several record highs over the past few months. In this context, a pause or a pullback is completely normal and can be seen as a healthy breather.
The major U.S. indices — S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones — had climbed strongly, driven by enthusiasm around AI, expectations of rate cuts, and a more positive economic backdrop. After such a run, it’s natural to see some profit taking and increased caution.
The release of the August PCE index, in line with expectations, reassured investors. Core inflation (+2.9% year-over-year) and the overall index (+2.7%) remain contained, keeping the odds of additional rate cuts before year-end on the table.
Beyond inflation, investors are keeping an eye on several factors:
• the strength of consumer spending and employment
• the evolution of financing costs and monetary policy
• the risk of volatility tied to U.S. fiscal policy.
In short, after a string of gains, a modest pullback doesn’t change the broader trend. Markets remain well supported, but it will be important to stay selective and attentive to upcoming economic signals.
