Return of the Trade War: Markets Wave

Your Portfolios in Brief

Seagate Technology Holdings plc (NASDAQ: STX), a major player in mass data storage, has experienced an exceptional year in 2025, both financially and technologically. With the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and the exponential growth of cloud storage needs, Seagate has positioned itself as a key leader in this field.

Founded in 1979, Seagate is a global company specializing in data storage solutions, notably hard disk drives (HDDs) and cloud solutions. Present in more than 20 countries, it employs over 40,000 people around the world.

Highlights in 2025

• Strong Financial Results: In the third fiscal quarter of 2025, Seagate reported revenue of 2.16 billion dollars, up 31% compared to the previous year. Adjusted earnings per share (non-GAAP) stood at $1.90, exceeding analysts’ expectations.

• Growth in the Mass Capacity Segment: Revenues from mass capacity storage solutions reached 1.7 billion dollars, an increase of 48% year-over-year.

• Technological Innovation with HAMR: Seagate launched its Mozaic 3+ hard drives using Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording (HAMR) technology, offering capacities of up to 36 TB. This advancement positions Seagate at the forefront of innovation in the storage field.

• Optimistic Forecasts: For the fourth fiscal quarter, Seagate forecasts revenue between 2.25 and 2.55 billion dollars and adjusted EPS between $2.20 and $2.60, reflecting continued confidence in market demand.

Why it’s a Stock to Watch

The rapid adoption of AI and the growth of generated data require efficient and large-scale storage solutions. According to a survey by Recon Analytics, 61% of companies predict that their cloud storage, supported by hard drives, will increase by more than 100% by 2028. Seagate, with its HAMR technology and cloud solutions like Lyve Cloud, is well-positioned to meet this growing demand.

What Analysts and Traders Are Saying

Wall Street analysts maintain a “Moderate Buy” recommendation for STX stock, with an average price target of $116.21, some going up to $160. This confidence is reinforced by Seagate’s ability to innovate and respond to the market’s evolving needs.

Conclusion

At Pratte Gestion, we have always favoured companies capable of anticipating major technological shifts. Seagate Technology perfectly illustrates this approach.

In 2025, Seagate demonstrated a remarkable ability to align its innovation with the market’s growing needs. With revenue reaching 2.16 billion dollars in the third fiscal quarter, up 31% year-over-year, and adjusted EPS of $1.90, the company shows solid performance.

The accelerated adoption of artificial intelligence and the exponential demand for cloud storage position Seagate as a key player. According to a study commissioned by the company, 61% of businesses predict that their cloud storage, supported by hard drives, will increase by more than 100% by 2028.

Analysts recognize this momentum, with a consensus “Moderate Buy” recommendation and price targets reaching up to $160.

By including Seagate in our portfolio, we are betting on a company that combines technological innovation, financial performance, and strategic vision. We are confident that Seagate will continue to play a major role in the expanding digital age.

Moreover, the STX stock shows impressive market performance: an increase of nearly 30% since the beginning of the year and 4% over the past week. This momentum reflects market confidence in the company’s strategic positioning.

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Markets in Brief

Monday

• Dow Jones: [+0.11%] (42,284.63 points)

• S&P 500: [+0.09%] (5,930.29 points)

• NASDAQ: [+0.65%] (19,283.76 points)

• TSX (Toronto): [-0.22%] (25,674.32 points)

On the currency market, the Canadian dollar traded at an average rate of 71.68 US cents, up from 71.65 US cents on Friday.

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Wall Street Ends Slightly Higher Despite Budget Concerns

After starting the session lower due to a warning from Fitch about U.S. debt levels, stock markets rebounded slightly on Monday. The rise in tech stocks and expectations of interest rate cuts supported the indexes, even though structural concerns surrounding the federal deficit and debt weighed on investor sentiment.

• Fitch Ratings: The rating agency reiterated that the U.S. triple-A rating remains on negative watch due to high deficits and growing public debt.

• Federal Debt: The U.S. has accumulated a US$1.2 trillion deficit over the first seven months of the fiscal year, up 23% from last year.

• Rate Outlook: Investors are still counting on two rate cuts in 2025, despite mixed signals from the Federal Reserve.

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Stocks in Brief

Top Gainers of the Session

• Meta Platforms (+1.48%): Technical rebound after three consecutive down sessions.

• Alphabet (+0.75%): Supported by renewed interest in artificial intelligence and advertising platforms.

Top Losers of the Session

• Boeing (-0.82%): Another pullback after the euphoria around the Qatar Airways order.

• Pfizer (-1.01%): Pullback in the pharmaceutical sector amid sectoral rotation.

Sector Performance

• Sector Up: Technology – Tech giants like Meta, Alphabet and Microsoft boosted NASDAQ, supported by rate cut hopes and renewed AI investment.

• Sector Down: Health – The healthcare sector underperformed Monday, affected by profit-taking on several defensive stocks as risk appetite returned.

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Tuesday

• Dow Jones: [-0.27%] (42,677.24 points)

• S&P 500: [-0.39%] (5,940.46 points)

• NASDAQ: [-0.38%] (19,142.71 points)

• TSX (Toronto): [+0.32%] (26,055.63 points)

On the currency market, the Canadian dollar traded at an average rate of 71.76 US cents, up from 71.54 US cents the previous day.

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Rally Stalls Amid Tariff and Budget Uncertainty

Wall Street took a breather Tuesday, ending a six-session winning streak for the S&P 500. Investors took profits, especially in the tech sector, as excitement around tariff relief started to face a lack of clarity about upcoming trade negotiations. Meanwhile, political uncertainty over President Trump’s proposed tax reform fuelled skepticism.

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Stocks in Brief

Top Gainers of the Session

• Warby Parker (+15.63%): The eyewear company jumped after announcing a strategic partnership with Google to develop smart glasses.

• Tesla (+0.51%): The stock rose after Elon Musk reaffirmed his commitment to remain CEO for the next five years.

Top Losers of the Session

• Alphabet (-1.54%): Pulled down by sector rotation, mirroring a broader tech pullback.

• Amazon (-1.01%), Apple (-0.92%), Nvidia (-0.88%), Meta (-0.52%), Microsoft (-0.15%): All members of the “Magnificent Seven” ended the day lower.

• Home Depot (-0.57%): Disappointed investors with a drop in net profit despite revenue exceeding expectations. Consumers are slowing down major home renovation projects.

Sector Performance

• Sector Up: Telecommunications and Utilities (Canada) – The TSX hit a new record high thanks to strength in these sectors.

• Sector Down: Information Technology – Sector correction following a weeks-long rally.

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Inflation in Canada

Annual inflation in Canada fell to 1.7% in April 2025, down from 2.3% in March, mainly due to the elimination of the federal carbon tax and lower energy prices. However, core inflation measures, closely watched by the Bank of Canada, rose, complicating the monetary policy outlook.

Drivers of the Overall Inflation Decline:

The removal of the carbon tax on April 1 led to a significant drop in energy prices. Gasoline prices fell 18.1% year-over-year, and natural gas declined by 14.1%, contributing to the decrease in headline inflation.

Increase in Core Inflation Measures:

Despite the overall decline, core measures rose. The CPI-median and CPI-trim indexes reached 3.2% and 3.1%, respectively, the highest since March 2024. These indicators exclude volatile items and one-off effects, such as the carbon tax repeal, and are viewed as more reliable trend gauges.

Implications for Monetary Policy:

The Bank of Canada faces a dilemma: on one hand, the economy is showing signs of slowing, with unemployment up to 6.9% in April—especially in trade-sensitive manufacturing. On the other, rising core inflation suggests persistent price pressures. Analysts are divided on the next BoC decision due June 4. Some expect the rate to remain at 2.75%, while others forecast a cut if economic data worsens.

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Wednesday

• Dow Jones: [-1.91%] (41,868.11 points)

• S&P 500: [-1.61%] (5,844.61 points)

• NASDAQ: [-1.41%] (18,978.40 points)

• TSX (Toronto): [-0.83%] (25,839.17 points)

On the currency market, the Canadian dollar traded at an average rate of 72.21 US cents, up from 71.76 US cents the previous day.

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Deficit Fears and Yield Spike Sink Wall Street

New York markets tumbled Wednesday on concerns over the budgetary consequences of Donald Trump’s new tax plan. The proposal seeks to extend his first-term tax cuts, potentially adding significantly to federal debt. A sharp rise in 10-year bond yields to 4.60% exacerbated selling pressure.

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Stocks in Brief

Top Gainers of the Session

• Alphabet (+2.79%): Rose after launching a new AI-enhanced search engine with integrated advertising.

Top Losers of the Session

• Target (-5.22%): See above.

• UnitedHealth (-5.78%): See above.

• Tesla (-2.68%): Ended the day sharply lower despite reassuring comments from Elon Musk.

• Nvidia (-0.9%), Apple, Meta, Microsoft, AMD: Tech names slid as bond yields climbed.

Sector Performance

• Sector Up: Gold and Precious Metals – Gold and copper rose as safe-haven assets.

• Sector Down: Consumer Discretionary and Health – Weighed down respectively by tariff concerns and UnitedHealth’s plunge.

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Soaring Yields and Deficit Concerns

The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose to 4.59% Wednesday, the highest since February, while the 30-year yield surpassed 5%, a high since 2023. This rise was driven by a disappointing 20-year bond auction, rising fears over the U.S. budget deficit, and Trump’s proposed tax law.

Disappointing Auction Rattles Markets:

The US$16 billion 20-year bond auction saw weaker-than-expected demand, triggering a jump in yields. This outcome intensified fears about the government’s ability to finance its growing deficit without causing a major increase in borrowing costs.

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Thursday

• Dow Jones: [-0.00%] (41,859.09 points)

• S&P 500: [-0.04%] (5,842.01 points)

• NASDAQ: [+0.28%] (18,925.73 points)

• TSX (Toronto): [+0.06%] (25,854.01 points)

On the currency market, the Canadian dollar traded at an average rate of 72.10 US cents, down from 72.21 US cents the previous day.

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Trump Advances Budget Plan, Yields Jump

Markets moved cautiously on Thursday as the U.S. House of Representatives passed Donald Trump’s budget bill. The initiative includes tax cuts and increased military spending, with a cost estimated between US$2 and US$4 trillion over ten years. Bond yields spiked early in the session but eased later. The impact on the federal deficit continues to concern investors as long-term rates weigh on the markets.

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Stocks in Brief

Top Gainers of the Session

• Urban Outfitters (+22.84%): Beat expectations with earnings of $1.16 per share (consensus: $0.84) and revenue above forecasts.

• Hinge Health (+17.37%): Strong stock market debut for the digital health firm, which raised $273M in its IPO.

• Advance Auto Parts (+32.00%): Surpassed expectations with a smaller-than-expected loss and rising revenues.

• Nike (+2.23%): Rebounded after CNBC reported that Nike products will return to Amazon—a first since 2019.

Top Losers of the Session

• Sunrun (-38.00%): Plunged on fears that solar tax credits may be removed under the new tax law.

• Marvell Technology (-4.50%): Downgraded by Melius, which questioned the relevance of its optical technology business.

• ITB Home Construction ETF (-6.60% for the week): Fourth straight decline hurt by rising rates and weak home sales.

• Campbell Soup, General Mills, Kraft Heinz (new 52-week lows): Food giants continue to slide, hurt by margin erosion and soft consumer demand.

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Sector Performance

• Sector Up: Consumer Discretionary

Driven by strong results from Urban Outfitters, Advance Auto Parts and Nike, this sector benefited from unexpectedly resilient demand.

• Sector Down: Renewable Energy

The Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) dropped 8%, its worst session since November 2024. Fears of federal subsidy rollbacks weigh heavily.

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Friday

• Dow Jones: [-0.93%] (41,471.72 points)

• S&P 500: [-0.96%] (5,785.95 points)

• NASDAQ: [-1.32%] (18,676.37 points)

• TSX (Toronto): [-0.39%] (25,752.37 points)

On the currency market, the Canadian dollar traded at an average rate of 71.98 US cents, down from 72.10 US cents the previous day.

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Trump Reignites Trade War, Markets Tumble

The New York Stock Exchange began the session sharply lower on Friday after President Donald Trump unexpectedly announced new protectionist measures. He declared a 25% tariff on iPhones manufactured abroad and sold in the United States—directly targeting Apple—and recommended a 50% customs tariff on imports from the European Union starting June 1.

• Apple (-2.75%): Targeted by Trump, the stock fell after the announcement of a 25% tariff on iPhones produced outside the U.S.

• Tech under pressure: Qualcomm (-3.3%), Micron (-2.5%), and Nvidia (-1%) dropped, as tech stocks are highly sensitive to trade tensions.

• Europe impacted: European banking and luxury stocks were also affected by the tariff threats.

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Conclusion

North American markets ended the week sharply lower, reversing their recent upward momentum as trade tensions abruptly re-emerged. After several weeks buoyed by hopes of tariff de-escalation, a sudden re-escalation by President Donald Trump unsettled investors and sent shockwaves through global equities.

The U.S. President reignited fears of a full-scale trade war by directly targeting Apple with a proposed 25% tariff on foreign-made iPhones and recommending a sweeping 50% tariff on all imports from the European Union starting June 1. These moves, seen as a stark reversal from the recent cooling of trade hostilities, triggered a broad sell-off in technology stocks and internationally exposed sectors.

The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all declined by more than 2% for the week, snapping their winning streaks. In Canada, the TSX also posted a weekly loss, weighed down by weakness in commodities and renewed global volatility.

One bright spot emerged in the nuclear energy sector, which rallied strongly after reports that the Trump administration would soon unveil executive orders in support of the industry. Stocks like NuScale, Oklo, and Cameco posted standout performances, offering rare gains in an otherwise risk-of environment.

All in all, the week marked a sharp shift in sentiment, highlighting the fragility of geopolitical stability and its immediate impact on markets. The coming days will be critical in determining whether this tariff escalation persists or if there’s still room for renewed negotiations.